Even before the recent Iran war and its Middle East escalation broke out, global uncertainty and anxiety was the norm. The Global Risks Report 2026, the 21st edition of this annual analysis published by the World Economic Forum, paints a dark picture of the world’s current risk landscape.
The Global Risks Perception Survey asked 1,300 global leaders and experts worldwide about economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological concerns, and had them assess risk across three time horizons—immediate (2026), short-to-medium (to 2028) and long-term (to 2036). Respondents spanned academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society, as well as the Global Risks Report Advisory Board, the Global Future Councils Network and the Forum’s C-suite communities.
The central report finding is that we are entering an “age of competition” where global uncertainty is intense, cooperation is fraying, and risks are accelerating and increasingly interconnected.
Heightened uncertainty is pervasive among the results. Half of survey respondents view the outlook for the next two years as “turbulent or stormy,” with this pessimism rising to 57% over the next decade. Only 1% anticipate a “calm global future” across either timeframe. This reflects growing anxieties about geopolitical friction, economic instability, polarization and technological disruption, underscoring a global risk environment more volatile and unpredictable than in recent years.
Multilateralism Retreats
Multilateral cooperation—a key mechanism for managing global risks—is weakening. Declining trust between governments, reduced transparency, protectionist tendencies and eroding respect for international norms all chip away at worldwide efforts to tackle shared challenges. The diminished value of a “currency of cooperation” puts global stability under siege.
The multilateralism retreat has also triggered geoeconomic confrontation, with nations utilizing economic tools like sanctions, export controls and trade restrictions to pursue respective advantages. Survey respondents cited “geoeconomic confrontation” as the risk most likely to trigger a material global crisis in 2026, with 18% citing it as the top threat, up sharply from previous years. Close behind was “state-based armed conflict” at 14%.
As supply chains are strained by economic rivalry, fragmented markets and decoupling, they are becoming more fragile. This makes further disruptions more likely, and heightens risks of crises spreading across regions and industries.
Economic Risks Intensify
Economic risks as a collective category showed the largest increases in severity score rankings for the near term compared with last year’s findings. “Economic downturn,” “inflation” and “asset price bubbles” have all risen in the ranks to more prominent concerns. Economic downturn was behind only geoeconomic confrontation.
Cost-of-living pressures and K-shaped economies underlie these concerns. Over the next two years, an “economic reckoning” over rising debt and possible asset bubbles—combined with growing geoeconomic tensions—could trigger a new wave of volatility, further destabilizing societies and businesses.
Technological Risks Amplify
Technological advancement remains a double-edged sword. While many welcome its innovation and economic opportunities, there are legitimate fears over risks that we are ill-prepared to manage.
Within the technology domain in the short term, “misinformation and disinformation” and “cyber insecurity” rank among the top overall concerns, #2 and #6 respectively. This reflects the increasing role digital platforms play in shaping public perception, social cohesion and political stability.
In all time frames, respondents are increasingly anxious about artificial intelligence and how it will reshape labor markets, security and societal structures. But long term is where AI anxiety really lands. Over the 10-year horizon, the risk of adverse outcomes of AI jumps dramatically in severity ranking—from #30 in the two-year view to #5 in the decade ahead.
While frontier technologies like quantum computing could transform areas such as climate modeling and drug discovery, they also bring new risks. Strong governance and cooperation are needed to prevent quantum advances from fueling geopolitical rivalry and economic divides, and weakening public trust.
‘Streets vs Elites’
The report stresses how societies worldwide are under mounting pressure from political polarization and eroding trust in institutions. Such divisions fuel the rise of extremist movements and deepen skepticism toward traditional governance structures.
The narrative of “streets versus elites” reflects the public’s widespread disillusionment with political elites and democratic institutions. Such dynamics undermine social cohesion, weaken crisis response capabilities, and drive misinformation, inequality and instability.
Inequality was identified as the most interconnected risk for a second year running.
Environmental Concerns Deprioritized in Short Term
One of the report’s more sobering insights is that while environmental and climate risks—extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and critical Earth-system changes—remain the most severe over the 10-year horizon, they have been widely deprioritized in the short-term relative to other risk categories.
“Extreme weather” dropped from 2nd to 4th in ranking for the next two years, and “pollution” from 6th to 9th, suggesting policymakers and stakeholders are currently focused more on geopolitical and economic pressures than immediate climate threats. Long term, however, environmental risks dominate half of the top 10 severe risk list, underscoring that climate instability has potential to exacerbate other crises.
Three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any category.
Trajectories of these risks are not predetermined, and the report can be viewed as a cautionary tale. Collective choices made today can reinvigorate cooperation, invest in adaptive governance, address structural inequalities and integrate long-term foresight.
