The 10 largest U.S. ports showed a 7.9% year over year decrease in inbound volume in October. This comes after September’s 6.6% decrease and increases in August of 0.2% and in July of 3.2%. Both of the latter were significantly buoyed by frontloading to get goods in prior to additional tariffs going into effect. Prior to that, there were decreases of 8.3% in June and 6.6% in May. Going forward, inbound volume into the U.S. will show consistent and more pronounced year over year declines well into next year in the absence of any changes to the current tariffs.
Inbound In-depth
The 7.9% year over year decrease in total inbound volume in October was a sharp contrast to the year ago gain of 9.7% in October 2024. The actual trailing three-month inbound numbers showed total inbound volume in October decreasing 4.7%, the fifth straight negative reading of that metric in 24 months as the 19 months that came before were all positive readings.
Inbound loads this October compared to October 2019 were 10.4% higher, which is equivalent to a six-year CAGR of 1.7%. That growth rate measure was below the 2.1% in September, 3.0% in August and the 3.4% in July while being above the 1.6% and 0.8% growth measures for June and May. The underlying trend is downward.
These medium-term comparisons to the same month in 2019 are important metrics that have the effect of jumping over and therefore netting out the roller coaster impact of the pandemic and getting at the underlying growth rate. The latest actual growth rate of 1.7% compared to 2019 is less than half the 3.8% 10-year CAGR that total inbound loads grew in the decade from 2010 to 2020. We are now looking at the real possibility of multiyear declines and will need to arrive at a new equilibrium point before we can then estimate growth. That figure will likely be below 2.7% per year given the array of factors that have been and continue to be erected as barriers to trade that did not exist in the past.
Outbound In-depth
Total outbound volume in October was up 13.7% driven by the ILA situation last October. While there was a short-lived actual strike in early October, as the contract deadline approached without resolution some shippers diverted outbound shipments from East/Gulf Coast ports and this resulted in a particularly depressed year ago outbound figure. This year’s, October anomaly came after a 0.5% increase in September and a 0.5% decrease in August. That back and forth followed a 2.0% increase in July and a 1.7% decrease in June. While outbound volume has shown that type of erratic pattern on a month-to-month basis for over a year, a more definable downtrend is emerging and is evident by the underlying downtrend in the percent change in the trailing twelve-month volume. I expect year over year decreases in outbound volume will be more consistent going forward as the impact of countervailing tariffs becomes more pronounced.
With exports, only 24 of the last 68 months have shown year over year gains, with a 1.4% average monthly decline over the period. While total inbound loads this October were 10.4% above what they were six years ago during October 2019 for a 1.7% CAGR, total outbound loads were 11.2% less for a negative 2.0% CAGR. That 370-basis point difference in directional growth rates over a six-year period is a noteworthy divergence in the overall performance of exports compared to imports over the same period. The October metric was above the 330-basis point difference in September but well below the 510-basis point difference in August.
Total inbound loads were 2.32 times outbound loads in October, notably below both the 2.50 times ratio in September and the 2.63 times ratio in August. The 2.32 times metric for the most recent month is also below the trailing twelve-month average of 2.46 times. The annual measure averaged 2.43x, 2.17x, 2.54x, 2.52x, 2.19x and 1.85x for 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019.
Tariff Impacts
We are now past the built-in lag effect of most of the tariffs that are now in place as well as frontloading to get loads in before certain tariffs. An overriding observation is how rapidly adjustments have been made to worldwide supply chains with the catalyst being the actual and proposed tariffs by the U.S. As a first step, the introduction of noteworthy additional costs into the supply chains will result in many parties making reassessments based on the new economics.
Supply chains related to goods moving in containers are very dynamic systems. As the actual data already shows, there have been adjustments and pivoting in terms of where container loads are going and this invariably involves China. Adjustments related to manufacturing and production sites generally take longer to occur but such shifts can be expected to be meaningful.
When U.S. container volume data is compared to global data and data in other major areas, there is a noticeable and widening gap as the downtrends in U.S. lanes are being significantly mitigated by increased volume in other areas.
The suggestion that the U.S. is the dominant party and by imposing tariffs that will require other countries to accept U.S. demands is not supported by the actual data. In September the slack in import volume to North America was picked up by markets in Africa, Mideast/India and Australia. Of note, the inbound volume to the Top 10 U.S. ports as a percentage of total inbound volume to North America has been bouncing around much more than in the past. While there is a timing issue in that the CTS data does not reflect the lag effect in the timing difference between the departure and arrival of a vessel, that metric points to increased lumpiness in the supply chain driven by the tariffs. That timing difference related to the CTS data also results in Far East exports being a bit of a leading indicator on loads that may arrive at U.S. ports the following month. The level and trend of container shipments involving the Far East are of course driven by what is happening related to shipments involving China.
As we learned during the pandemic, when inbound volume ultimately destined for the U.S. is dispersed on a wider range of ports including Mexico and Canada, that often results in supply chain issues due to those changing patterns. That dispersion during the pandemic resulted from port capacity issues, but the dispersion now and in the near-term future will be driven by tariffs. With the amount of the tariffs, there are all sorts of strategies that will be looked at by shippers and carriers as potentially having a net favorable effect. Most of those strategies will involve less economic activity in the U.S. while increasing direct supply chain costs and resulting in uncertainly and unpredictability. The latter could often have a more adverse overall impact than the direct cost. Beyond that, there will also be much that will be studied and analyzed by manufacturers and producers with the relative changes tariffs are injecting into relative cost economics but those changes will be further down the road.
On the export volume side, the underperformance in North America was mitigated by overperformance in Mideast/India, Australia and the Far East. In particular, the downward trend related to U.S. volume in both directions has been mitigated by sharp upwardly moving volume trends in Africa and Mideast/India. China is the driver in those markets and with the tariff catalyst have reassessed based on analysis and planning the steps they should take to protect their own economic interests.
Global Perspective
Worldwide container volume grew 5.0% year over year in September, some 11.6 percentage points or 1160 basis points better than inbound volume to the U.S. that same month. Another tangible indication of strength in other global markets is that overall container exports from the Far East were up 6.9% compared to the same month last year. Container imports to Africa (up 23.6%), Mideast/India (up 14.7%), Australia (up 9.8%), South/Central America (up 8.0%) and Europe (up 7.2%) are all robust. On the other hand, imports to North America (down 7.3%) driven by the U.S. (down 6.6%) are languishing and declining. World container supply chains have already begun to adapt and reconfigure trading patterns.
The chart below highlights the U.S. performance through the monthly year over year changes in U.S. container volume increases compared to worldwide data. Worldwide data is just through September as that is the latest month available from CTS. The worldwide volume growth of 5.0% in September was well ahead of volume growth measures in the U.S. that had inbound volume down 6.6% and total volume was down 4.2%. That gap is guaranteed to grow and widen in the months ahead.
The full year 2024 saw a 15.2% increase in total inbound loads to the U.S. compared to 2023. To say that the annual total for 2025 will be in diametric contrast is an understatement. More are now agreeing with the point that I have repeatedly made in earlier reports this year that the tariffs will result in an actual decline in 2025 inbound volume when the full year is compared to 2024. However, that will have no relation to the much more significant decline I expect 2026 will represent compared to 2025.
The CTS data is compiled based on shipment date and the loads show as an export at one place and an import at another place. There is no timing difference in the CTS data and that framework can have it out of sync with port data that is based on actual shipment and arrival dates. As such, the CTS data for a given month includes loads that will actually arrive one or even two months later. When the data is followed closely, that can have the CTS data telegraphing volume trends. For instance, the September CTS data for imports to North America shows a decline of 7.3%, yet another indication that inbound volume to the U.S. that represents the majority of loads to North America is moving in a downward direction.
Economic Impact
This year will be one of the more striking year-to-year changes in U.S. container volume in the six-decade history of container shipping. I’m only aware of two periods of annual declines – during the financial crisis and the pandemic – and both proved to be short-lived. Indeed, total U.S. inbound volume in 2024 was actually above the peak pandemic volume year of 2022. For a tangible metric that has consistently for decades grown above U.S. GDP, most often at two, three or even more multiples of GDP, the unusual nature of an actual decline in inbound container volume into the U.S. cannot be overemphasized. The actual data shows that U.S. container volume changes are now well below the rest of the world and that gap will widen as the effect of tariffs already in place takes hold.
To put into better context the commercial activity that could be impacted from container volume declines, the total value of goods in containers moving in and out of all U.S. ports including the two dozen container ports outside of the Top 10 ports in October was $178.8 billion. That is the equivalent of $2.146 trillion in annualized economic activity.
Whether it involves increases or decreases, material changes in what clearly represents a meaningful portion of the U.S. economy will have pronounced positive and negative effects across the economy. For example, a 15% reduction in overall container volume from this point on based on tariffs is possible. Such a decrease would translate directly into a $322 billion reduction in annual commerce for the U.S. It will flow through and ripple throughout the economy, adversely affecting everything that commerce touches and invariably resulting in job losses.
I anticipate that regular readers of my reports will continue to get early insight on economic direction based on actual container volume trends. In 2024, that was primarily related to the strength of the economy. In 2025 and through 2026, that will be the effect of the tariffs and the related economic and inflation impacts.
Pricing
The CTS global pricing index, the definitive measure of overall sector pricing, has come out for September and at the level of 76 it was 6.2% below the August level of 81. Compared to its overall 2024 average, that latest monthly index is 21.0% lower. The year-to-date average CTS global pricing index through August is down 14.5% compared to its overall 2024 average.
The September index brought the actual trailing three-month average to 80.3, or 6.6% below the actual 1Q25 average of 86.0 and 0.5% below the actual 2Q25 average of 80.7. I view the spike in the June CTS global pricing index to 86 as an anomaly driven by temporary capacity issues related to frontloading from tariffs and the downward bias in pricing has returned. From its recent monthly peak level of 118 in July 2024, before the June spike the global pricing index has been generally declining since then. That July 2024 peak itself resulted from an uptrend since the November 2023 level of 69 and is largely a result of the Red Sea situation.
Note that the CTS global pricing index uses actual 2008 rates as the base set to 100 and they are not inflation adjusted. That level of 69 was the lowest monthly reading over the last five years and approximates where the index was consistently prior to the pandemic. That overall non-inflation adjusted pricing today is less than it was decades ago is another indication that speaks volumes about the cost efficiency of container shipping.
The latest readings on the SCFI index, the most closely followed spot index measure, augment overall pricing insight into the container sector. Pricing in most container lanes involving the U.S. shows trends similar to those in broader measures as the lanes are invariably linked in what is really a single pricing matrix. While there are credibility issues with the various spot pricing indices based on how they are determined and who provides input, they do provide information on the direction and trend of pricing. One example of that is the recent uptick in the SCFI these last few weeks which is highlighted below.
The SCFI began trending down last December and, except for a summer bump due to frontloading that has dissipated, has continued to contract. The latest SCFI reading of 1431 on November 14 is 3.4% below the 3Q25 level of 1481 and 13.0% below the average 2Q25 level of 1645. In the last seven weeks, however, the index has increased 28.3% from a reading of 1115 on September 26, which was the lowest the SCFI has been since December 15, 2023, when it was at 1094. Note that the late 2023 reading was towards the end of the quarter where the industry reported a small loss as the pandemic effect had ended and it was just before the Red Sea situation provided another notable capacity situation that would sharply push up industry results.
What has been pushing up spot rates most recently is capacity reduction in the form of the largest number of cancelled sailings seen since the early days of the pandemic. This is driven by the reduced shipment volume that is occurring as a direct result of the tariffs and other initiatives such as the USTR ship fees. This is another indication of the downward trajectory in container volume that will become apparent in the months ahead.
Shifting Port Traffic
The West Coast ports have outperformed the East/Gulf Coast ports in nineteen of the last 27 months. Those eight months that were the exceptions, including the three most recent months, were a return to the period before the last 23 months that saw a streak of 26 straight months where the East/Gulf Coast ports out-performed West Coast ports.
October showed a 10.3 percentage point coastal gap favoring East/Gulf Coast ports based on an 12.8% decrease at West Coast ports compared to the 2.5% decrease at East/Gulf Coast ports. That was above the 5.3 percentage point September advantage and the 10.0 percentage point August advantage of East/Gulf Coast ports. The last three months were a flip from the 7.2 and 1.8 percentage point coastal gaps favoring West Coast ports in July and June.
The trailing three-month figures give a clearer picture of trends and the recent westward shift that has now abated. In October they showed the East/Gulf Coast ports with an advantage of 8.5 percentage points compared to 2.7 percentage points in September and 0.4 percentage points in August. That extends on a trend that is a sharp downturn with October diametrically different than the 25.8 percentage point record West Coast advantage for the three months ending November 2023. Only six of the last twenty-seven periods had East/Gulf Coast ports outperforming on this metric. The West Coast advantages go back to September 2023 and East/Gulf Coast ports had the advantage during the prior 29 months.
Ports with the strongest October performance were Houston (up 7.6%), Oakland (up 0.9%) and Norfolk (down 1.8%). The weakest performance during October came in at Seattle/Tacoma (down 25.2%), Long Beach (down 17.6%) and Savannah (down 8.8%).
For the three months ending October, East/Gulf Coast ports decreased 0.2% compared to a 8.8% decrease at West Coast ports.
Latest Developments: USTR Ship Fee Plan
The most important recent developments relate to China and involve a one-year pause of both the planned reciprocal tariffs as well as the USTR ship fee plan. Both loomed as major initiatives that could exacerbate the volume impact as China is by far our largest trading partner related to goods moving in containers and is the origin point for almost 40% of inbound boxes.
This is an excerpt of the McCown Container Volume Observer, which features an exhaustive deep dive into the facts and figures behind U.S. container shipping volumes, including analysis of monthly trends by port and by direction. The observations and data in the 25-page report include some 20 graphs and tables, providing timely container volume and pricing information. To subscribe to The McCown Report, visit The McCown Report site.
About the author: John D. McCown is an internationally recognized shipping expert with over four decades of experience in the sector. He currently serves as a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Maritime Strategy, the think tank of the Navy League. McCown was the co-founder and former CEO of U.S. flag container carrier Trailer Bridge, Inc. He also focused on the shipping and transportation industries from an investment perspective as the transport sector head at a $20 billion hedge fund.
