The current U.S. trade environment is defined by one word: uncertainty. Apparel executives are navigating a rapid transition from overturned IEEPA tariffs to temporary Section 122 measures and the looming rollout of Section 301 actions.
The rollercoaster is a lot to keep up with, a challenge to comply with and almost impossible to plan around. In a recent conversation for HGI Now with Hertzman Global Intelligence founder Edward Hertzman, Ron Sorini, co-founder and principal at trade consultancy Sorini Samet and Advisors, attempts to make sense of what’s happening and shed light on what’s around the corner.
From Sorini’s perspective, the current 10% tariff on imports to the U.S. represents the “best case” scenario, though only for the short term. Political pressure—particularly ahead of elections this fall—could lead to a more targeted, category-specific approach that mirrors the IEEPA rates. In the meantime, he urges the industry to participate in tariff comment periods as they’re announced given that the government appears increasingly receptive to industry input on where relief is most needed.
“There’s a strong concern among Republicans in the House and Senate that tariffs are a drag on the economy and that tariffs are going to affect the midterm elections,” he said. “As that panic continues to set in, I think Congress will be more interested in constraining the White House in terms of what it’s doing on trade and be a little more predictable.”
Beyond tariffs, Sorini provides insights into whether more changes could be on the horizon for companies doing business in the U.S., including first sale valuation, non-resident importers and DDP arrangements. It all adds up to more scrutiny on imports as well as a potential bigger budget for U.S. Customs & Border Protection, he said.
Finally, Sorini shares the latest on the newly operational IEEPA refund system, who’s getting refunds and how some companies are getting hung up in the process.
Watch the video series to learn:
- What tariff rates could look like after Section 122 expires in July, where exceptions may emerge and the countries with the most risk
- Why Section 122 tariffs were never increased to 15%
- How the midterm elections are playing a part in Trump’s trade policy
- Where each party stands heading into the USMCA talks this summer
- How rising enforcement scrutiny could impact sourcing strategies and risk exposure
