Footwear brands and retailers are an optimistic bunch. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the industry continues to bet on the consumer’s never-ending desire to buy another pair of shoes.
The findings of the “Shoe Executive Business Outlook Survey Q1 2026,” recently released by the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), showed respondents’ 6-month outlooks for both the economy and shoe shoppers to be the brightest in 5 quarters. Additionally, 64.2% (a 7-quarter high) say their company sales are higher vs 6 months ago, while over half look for their company sales to increase over the next half year, the highest share in 2 years.
The survey (conducted before the war in the Middle East began) pointed overall to an improving industry outlook, with the lowest share in 4 years seeing their company health weakening over the next 6 months.
Some optimism is partly due to companies being scrappier and working smarter. “I will say that our members are doing less with more, and continue to work with their current personnel level,” said Matt Priest, president and CEO, FDRA. In fact, only 4 in 10 expect their operating costs to rise over the next 6 months, a 9-quarter low.
When it comes to price, over two thirds see their landed costs “flat to lower” over the next 6 months—an 8-quarter high—while a record-high of 1 in 5 see their landed costs “unchanged” over the next year. Similarly, over two thirds see their retail
prices flat to lower over the next 6 months, a 6-quarter high. And less than half see their retail prices rising over the next year, a record low share.
Other indications point to a resilient consumer, as well as realities that while the U.S. market “will probably be flat to down” in 2026, brands can help offset this with growing markets outside the U.S.
Not all is rosy, however. Most respondents (57%) noted the government, including taxes, duties and regulations, as the biggest source of concern in 2025 and also into 2026. Additionally, the footwear industry is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a war in the Middle East does not bode well for the price of inputs or the price to bring them to market. FDRA cited a list of 25 inputs where oil is a direct component, including foams, TPU, plastics and synthetic fabrics, with potentials for a 3% to 7% cost increase.
Jet fuel prices have gone up 75% month over month, said Priest, so speeding something to market ahead of the Spring shopping season will see elevated prices from an air freight perspective, not to mention the “$400 to $1,000 surcharges” on spot rates not locked into contracts.
Most suppliers—the tier 2s and tier 3s—however, keep a 2-3 month supply of inputs available, he said, so it will take some time to truly get an understanding of what the cost increases might be for components.
Tariff Tumult
Of course, tariffs are keeping executives up at night—whether they are current tariffs, future tariffs or the process of getting refunds for the recently struck-down IEEPA tariffs.
“A typical athletic looking shoe with a textile upper from Vietnam, for example, already has a 20% tariff, then you stack 10% for the temporary 122 tariffs on top of that, and then whatever 301 tariffs are agreed upon on top of that, which are likely to hit when the 122s expire end of July. This is hitting at a time when there’s tremendous pressure with the oil from the Iran war,” said Thomas Crockett, FDRA’s senior vice president, government relations.
The FDRA “doesn’t believe the time is right for any shoe tariffs,” but admits it’s hard to find a worse time than right now, because of what the industry is seeing on a global scale.
“The President himself said in May of last year that he does not want to make shoes here, so we hope that the administration remembers that comment and they more surgically approach these remedies that will not include additional tariffs on shoes,” said Crockett.
The FDRA is assisting members in recovering IEEPA tariffs already paid and guiding them to register through the digital portal for electronic refunds. Considering only about 7,000 companies overall have signed up out of about 330,566 importers that have paid IEEPA tariffs, the risks of leaving money on the table are high.
“Our large [member] companies in particular all actively registered, so I think it’s not an issue, but it’s something that caught our eye,” said Priest. “We’ve been really beating the drum to make sure that importers of record are signed up, and do it correctly, otherwise they won’t get their money. And with $166 billion at stake, there’s a massive incentive to go ahead and get registered.”
