Every year, the consumer seems to be “new,” following different trends, embracing different shopping habits, willing to spend more or less money. And every year brands and retailers have to learn this shopper all over again. This year is no different.
But what is actually new in 2026, is that all this learning comes amidst a sea change in the technology powering fashion and its supply chain. Alongside that is an economy that’s increasingly splitting off into a “K” shape, where some companies, workers and consumers are doing better than ever, while others are falling further behind.
At NRF’s Big Show earlier this month, three things were clear: social commerce (read: TikTok Shop) is on a rapid rise; the split between high- and low-income shoppers is changing a lot at the stores; and GLP-1s are changing more than people’s bodies.
Those were the mega trends Dan Frommer, founder and editor in chief of The New Consumer, outlined in a session on what’s set to shape apparel, footwear and accessories in 2026.
When it comes to social commerce, Frommer said, “TikTok Shop came out of nowhere. It launched just over two years ago in the U.S. and is one of the fastest growing merchants that I’ve ever seen, probably one of the fastest growing merchants in history.”
While that tidbit has its own meaning, putting the social commerce platform’s performance next to that of big brands and retailers really puts its growth into focus. Drawing on data from Consumer Edge, which tracks global consumer transactions, Frommer said, “In just a couple of years, [spending on TikTok Shop] has grown past Sephora…[and] has surpassed Shein, which was one of the previous darlings of next-generation retail.”
GLP-1s have become their own darling of the current era, and usage so far seems committed to growing. According to Frommer and recent research published by The New Consumer, “Around 20 percent of U.S. households already have at least on GLP-1 user.” That fact is, of course, shifting food consumption, but it’s also changing how these consumers spend.
“The vast, vast majority—around 90 percent of users—said they feel like a different person since starting GLP-1 medicine, and this not only shows up in their eating habits, but it shows up in how they are spending this money and taking this new person into the world. They are spending more money on exercise, they are spending more money on clothing, on handbags,” Frommer said. “This fear that consumption would suddenly plummet is just not the case. These users are trading up, they’re shopping, they’re spending and increasingly outfitting that new self.”
The other reality for retail in 2026 is the tale of two Americas. Not surprisingly, those who make more money are feeling better about the economy than those who make less. However, the spending environment, according to Michael Gunther, Consumer Edge vice president and head of insights, “has really become bifurcated.”
During the holiday shopping period, those making less than $40,000 a year decreased spend by about 2 percent compared to $150,000+ earners who increased spend by about 3 percent.
“What’s striking here is that even though, normally, you’ll see a point or two difference between different income groups in key holiday categories like apparel and home furnishings, the difference was a full five points,” Gunther said. “It gives a signal into how retailers might need to adjust if this trend continues, and we’re not seeing any signs of it reversing at this point.”
Taking just those with deeper pockets, Frommer said, since 2022, they’ve increased their share of spending at apparel merchants by 50 percent.
“This is a real market that should be addressed by retailers. And that’s not to say everyone should become a luxury brand,” he said, but “higher earners, younger consumers are trading up in many categories, and it’s a huge opportunity to serve those consumers.”
Broadly, the market seems to agree on value as a dominating factor in spending decisions, resale is still surging and luxury is still slipping.
Looking at the top 20 apparel brands with the greatest gains in spend, Consumer Edge found that MyTheresa outperformed the next best brand by more than double, and premium basics at brands like Carhartt and Quince won with shoppers. “Trendiness still matters, so we’re seeing influencer-led athleisure like Alo Yoga, and fast fashion [player] Shein outperforming in a tough sector,” Gunther said.
On the other end of the spectrum, Ssense—which is in the midst of a bankruptcy—led the bottom 20 brands in terms of spend. Saks Fifth Avenue, also gripped by bankruptcy, made the list too, as did Neiman Marcus on the luxury side. Where mid-market is concerned, the category continues to falter, with spending dwindling at Bonobos, Nike and Lululemon.
Poshmark was the lone wolf from resale on the losing list, as consumers are still looking for trend-forward pieces for their pre-loved purchases. Etsy-owned Depop, in contrast, has done well.
Where accessories are concerned, jewelry was the category that held the steadiest, with accessible luxury labels like Gorjana and Rare Carat leading spending growth. Cartier was the standout on the luxury end.
Brands that saw the highest direct-to-consumer growth—Miu Miu, Oner Active and Longchamp among them—had statement-making stories bored consumers could connect to, and a dedicated focus on social.
“Youth-driven luxury, creator-powered growth engines and accessible heritage labels are redefining what wins in 2026,” according to Consumer Edge.
This year, what will be key for competing in the market, Gunther said, is understanding where peers and competitor brands are positioned, meaning whether they are reliant on high- or lower-income earners, or older or younger shoppers. Vuori and Quince, for example, are most reliant on older, higher-income consumers, while Depop needs younger, lower-income shoppers, and Abercrombie & Fitch and Lululemon sit where younger, higher-income consumers meet.
“We track this across every single brand so when there’s a shift in the economy you can really understand who might be best positioned and who other brands might want to emulate if they want to see that same success,” Gunther said.
Whatever 2026 throws at retail, for this new year and this new consumer, the new premium, Gunther said, is “practical, polished and accessible luxury.”
