Back-to-school shopping continues to be one “super resilient spending event.” This remains true even as consumers navigate higher prices, lingering inflation and growing economic uncertainty. The annual National Retail Federation survey found that families may be more cautious about how they spend and where, but they continue to view school-related purchases as essential rather than discretionary.
According to the NRF, three themes are defining this year’s season: affordability is the top priority, consumers are shopping across more channels and retailers than before, and shopping lists continue to evolve alongside changing family needs.
Resilience Despite Economic Pressure
Consumer confidence may remain subdued, but back-to-school spending has largely become insulated from broader sentiment.
“Unlike spending on other occasions throughout the year, there’s really not a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and back-to-school spending,” said NRF vice president of consumer and industry insights Allison Zeller, during a briefing. School purchases simply move higher on the household priority list.
That pattern has held true throughout 2026. Despite elevated fuel prices and cautious consumers, retail spending has consistently exceeded expectations across major shopping events.
“Even with lower consumer sentiment and higher gas prices, we’ve seen record per-person spending at nearly every major retail event this year,” said Mark Mathews, NRF’s chief economist.
Families are still opening their wallets—but they’re becoming increasingly strategic about when, where and how they spend.
Deal Hunting Pushes Spending Earlier
The traditional back-to-school calendar continues to shift earlier.
Roughly one-third of consumers had already started shopping by June, taking advantage of promotional events like Amazon Prime Day, Walmart Deals and Target Circle Week, according to the NRF.
Those early promotions are fundamentally changing shopping behavior.
Rather than waiting until late July or August, families are purchasing items whenever discounts appear, stretching their spending across several months instead of making one large shopping trip.
For apparel retailers, that means the selling season is longer—but also more promotional. Consumers increasingly expect deals well before traditional back-to-school marketing begins.
Affordability Remains Top of Mind
NRF’s research shows affordability remains the dominant consideration for shoppers this year.
Nearly two-thirds (61%) of consumers believe prices are higher than they were last year, reinforcing the importance of discounts, promotions and value messaging.
That doesn’t necessarily mean families are buying less. Instead, they’re becoming more deliberate about stretching every dollar.
Mathews said consumers continue to prioritize school purchases, even if it means making adjustments elsewhere in their household budgets.
“They’re not willing to compromise on spending for school needs,” he said.
According to Mathews, families are adopting a variety of strategies, including shopping earlier, comparing prices across retailers, taking advantage of promotional events and spreading purchases over several weeks.
The broader economic picture explains why.
Consumer spending remains supported by steady wage growth, accumulated savings and continued access to credit. At the same time, however, households are saving considerably less than they historically have.
The personal savings rate has fallen to roughly 3%—well below its long-term average of 8.4%.
“The consumer is choosing to spend rather than save,” Mathews said.
While that has helped sustain retail sales throughout the year, he cautioned that relying on lower savings to maintain spending may become more challenging if economic conditions weaken.
Inflation also continues to pressure household budgets.
“We can see that inflation has started to eat into wages,” Mathews said, adding that inflation will remain an important factor influencing consumers’ ability to maintain spending levels in the months ahead.
Consumers Shop Around
Perhaps one of the more significant shifts for retailers is where consumers are choosing to shop.
The pandemic accelerated online purchasing, but shoppers are once again diversifying where they buy school essentials.
Among K-12 shoppers, the percentage planning to shop online has fallen from 55% to 50%, according to NRF.
Rather than relying on a single retailer, families are increasingly mixing online and physical stores, comparing prices across multiple merchants and purchasing different categories from different retailers.
For apparel sellers, that means price competitiveness, promotional timing, inventory availability and convenience all become increasingly important.
Apparel Squeezed by Tech
Changing shopping lists continue to reshape spending priorities.
Technology remains the largest spending category for both K-12 and college shoppers, reflecting the increasingly digital nature of education.
Families with K-12 students plan to spend an average of $293.11 on electronics, representing approximately $14.7 billion in total sales. Clothing and accessories rank second at $250.29 per student, totaling $12.5 billion, followed by shoes at $174.01 and school supplies at $146.45.
For college students, electronics also lead spending at an average of $341.95 per shopper, generating an estimated $24.63 billion in sales. Dorm furnishings, clothing and accessories, food and personal care items round out the largest spending categories.
Overall, clothing and accessories market share slides by 6 percentage points for K through 12, and 2 percentage points for college students.
A Challenging but Stable Second Half
Looking beyond the back-to-school season, NRF expects the consumer environment to remain manageable, even if growth moderates.
Mathews expects inflation to continue easing gradually, while acknowledging that factors such as energy prices and tariff-related costs remain difficult to predict. He also anticipates economic growth slowing rather than accelerating.
“It will be a challenging environment for retailers,” he said. “But it could be a lot worse.”
After nine months of solid retail performance, he sees little evidence pointing toward a sharp deterioration in consumer spending during the second half of the year.
